What is the
IEM?
The IEM is an on-line futures market where contract payoffs are based on real-world events such as political outcomes, companies' earnings per share (EPS), and stock price returns. The market is operated by University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business faculty as an educational and research project. More...
- Who can participate in the IEM?
- Are the participants playing with real money?
- Can markets predict the future?
- Can I get historical data from the IEM?
- How do I start trading?
- I need more information about the IEM...
News
November 5, 2008
Democratic Contract Never Trailed on IEM's Winner Take All Prediction Market
Traders on the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) predicted from the start that the Democratic nominee for president would be the likely winner of the 2008 popular vote. ...
October 30, 2008
IEM Traders Give Edge to Obama, Democrats, While Franken Price Dips
In the final days of the 2008 campaign, traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets continue to favor Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats to win next week's general elections, while Al Franken's price is dropping fast in Minnesota. ...
October 16, 2008
Traders Give Edge to Obama, Democrats, Franken on IEM's Election Markets
Last night's final presidential debate did little to change the price dynamic between the contenders on the Iowa Electronic Markets election markets, as Barack Obama's contract is still trading at prices considerably higher than John McCain's. ...
October 8, 2008
Obama-McCain Gap Widens on Iowa Electronic Markets
About the only stock that's going up these days is Barack Obama's, on the Iowa Electronic Markets. ...
September 29, 2008
McCain Contracts Shed 10 Percent of Value in Weekend IEM Trading
Prices for Republican presidential candidate John McCain tumbled more than 10 percent in trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets over the weekend, so traders now believe he has less than a one-third chance of winning the popular vote. ...
September 26, 2008
On Day of the First Debate, IEM Traders Still Make Obama the Favorite
On what may or may not be the day of the first presidential debate, traders on the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets continue to make Democratic candidate Barack Obama the favorite to win the popular vote in November. ...
September 18, 2008
IEM Standings Similar to British Market's
In the British prediction market Betfair, which takes large real-money bets but will not accept trades from U.S. customers, the Democrats remain a robust favorite, with a 58 percent chance of winning the White House compared with the Republicans' 42 percent chance. The IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS also rate the Democrats as the favorites by a roughly similar margin. ...
September 13, 2008
IEM Remains Unchanged
The race between John McCain and Barack Obama, for all the talk of a post-convention Republican surge and Democratic jitters, remains pretty much where it was a month ago and mirrors the presidential contest four years ago. "At the granddaddy of political futures markets, the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets, odds of the Democratic candidate winning the popular vote are at 54 percent. The Iowa market tends to be less volatile, said THOMAS RIETZ, a research fellow in the Department of Finance at the university's business school." ...
September 11, 2008
IEM Cited as Better Predictor of Wins Than Gallup Polls
Emory political science professor Alan Abramowitz seems to have a mathematical election model that works. Abramowitz's system has correctly predicted the popular vote winner within two percentage points for every presidential election since 1988. The model isn't perfect, of course, but it does factor in a wide range of variables such as GDP, a party's time in office, and recent polls. If you're skeptical of models, check out the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS trading index for the presidential election. For decades, it's been a much better predictor of presidential wins than Gallup polls. ...
September 5, 2008
IEM traders Unmoved by Conventions' Festivities
After two weeks of convention speeches, rallies, confetti, and fireworks, vice presidential selections, a hurricane and various and sundry controversies, traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets said, "eh." ...
